With home prices having dropped a painful 21% from their 2006 peaks, property owners everywhere could use a splash of good news in their New Year's Eve cocktails. But as a nasty recession is now part of the picture, the chances of an aggressive housing-market rebound in 2009 are dim. "A lasting recovery in the housing market?" says Mike Larson, a real-estate analyst at Weiss Research. "I don't see it in the cards until the back end of the year -- if that."
Here's a look at the factors that will be weighing down the housing market in 2009:
1. Recession
After months of speculation, the National Bureau of Economic Research made it official in early December 2008, announcing that the U.S. economy entered into a recession in December 2007. The only question now is: How painful a recession will we have? In a Nov. 21 report, economists at Goldman Sachs revised their previous forecast to reflect a more significant economic contraction and higher unemployment. "We now estimate that real GDP is falling at a 5% annual rate in the current quarter, and we expect this to be followed by declines of 3% and 1% in the next two quarters," the economists said. "This deepens and extends the expected recession, bringing the drop in GDP close to the decline seen in 1982 (2.3% in our forecast versus 2.7% then)." The recession will exert downward pressure on the housing market in a number of ways.
2. Higher unemployment
The shrinking economy will result in additional layoffs, which will work to smother housing demand. The unemployment rate has already been climbing -- in early December it was at 6.5% -- but many expect it to increase significantly in the coming year. Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment (more)
2 comments:
Hope things will fall in its property when it comes in real estate. Thanks for sharing this.
Charles | makati condo
Nice and useful info, thanks for sharing this topic.
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